Social media, context collapse and the future of data-driven populism

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Abstract

During the last decades populism has become a mainstream ideology in Western democracies (Mudde, 2004; 2016). At the same time, the popularisation of digital platforms has facilitated the process of political communication while social networks have become one of the preferred communicative tools for political populists to spread their messages.

Drawing on the idea that computational technologies allow a particular performance of populism (Baldwin-Philippi, 2019), this paper aims to foster a better theoretical understanding of how innovation in communication technologies contribute to the success of populism. It is argued that the characteristics of populism (a focus on ‘the people’, technological savviness and chameleonism) allow it to overcome most of the obstacles put in place by digital networks. In particular,populism is in an ideal situation to deal with the phenomena of context collapse in social media (Boyd; Marwick, 2011). Finally, it is argued that in the era of personalized politics (Bennett, 2012), populists can make use of real-time data-driven techniques to develop successful communicative strategies addressed to mass audiences in order to construct the populist self in the image and likeness of the people. This form of populism is called data-driven populism.

Keywords

Social media; Computational politics; Populism; Populist communication; Context collapse; Datafication; Microtargeting; Big data; Political communication

Introduction

In the last two decades, populism has become a mainstream political ideology in Western democracies (Mudde, 2004; Rooduijn, 2014b; Casero-Ripollés; Sintes-Olivella; Franch, 2017). Although populism has existed since the 19th century (Mazzoleni, 2014), it is precisely now that right-wing populist parties have achieved great popularity and electoral success in many European countries such as Italy, France and Austria (Mouffe, 2005), and more recently in Spain, Hungary, the UK and Brazil (Climent-Sanjuan; Montané-Goetzemberger, 2020; Shein, 2020; Putzel, 2020; Mudde, 2016; Alonso-Muñoz; Casero-Ripollés, 2018). Scholars have been analysing populist discourse for decades and have observed its roots in the emergence of mass societies which for some authors has given rise to populist democracies (Taggart, 2000). According to Kornhauser (1959), the mass media are the cause, and not only the effect, of the rise of populism. Research has stressed the close relationship between media development and the rise and consolidation of populist forces. For instance, it has been said that the evolution of the media industry has provided an ideal environment for the growth of populism (Mudde, 2004). For Mazzoleni (2003) it compels researchers to analyse mass media properties to completely understand populism and populist discourses. Moreover, the evolution of media technologies and the popularization of social media have helped populism to develop itself free from many of the constraints of traditional mass media. In particular, social media have allowed populist parties to bypass media institutions and traditional gatekeepers (Engesser; Ernst; Esser; Büchel, 2017a) and have given it the possibility to communicate with citizens without mediation. Since the logics of mass media and network media are completely different in terms of production, distribution or media usage (Klinger; Svensson, 2015), it may be argued that with social media, populism has entered a new stage.

The aim of this paper is to theoretically link two of the most well-known concepts of social networks communication, i.e., context collapse and imagined audiences, with the characteristics of populism and its technological performance (Baldwin-Philippi, 2019). It is argued that the often chameleonic, changeable and malleable nature of populist discourse (Taggart, 2000) finds its perfect environment in social media. On the other hand, in a context of disintermediated communication in which politicians have become responsible for their interactions with massive audiences (Bennett, 2012), populists can take advantage of real-time data-driven strategies to shape their messages and the way they represent themselves online by drawing on the shared characteristics of their audiences.

Populism

Scholars in political science hold that the frontiers between left and right have been blurred in Western democracies in the last decades (Mouffe, 2005). This context, in which differences between traditional parties weaken, combined with situations of crisis (Müller, 2016), are said to be a fertile ground for the emergence of so-called populist movements (Taggart, 2000; Mouffe, 2005). Populist discourse is an upward trend in the whole spectrum of political parties in Western countries and, for many scholars, it has become mainstream (Rooduijn, 2014a, Mudde, 2004). However, it expresses itself in a very fragmented way (Engesser; Ernst; Esser; Büchel, 2017a) and its characteristics are variable across countries and political cultures.

Even if there is no consensus on the definition of populism, many scholars have strived to discern the common traits of the diverse forms of populism. The centrality of a charismatic leader and the appeal to ‘the people’ against the ideological and economic elites, are some of the most common ones (Canovan, 1999). Differently, others, such as Elster (2020), hold that it is not possible to set out the “real” or “true” meaning of populism, nor to discover it through conceptual probes. Elster focuses on psychological attitudes and political programmes that define six types of populism: Lake Wobegon populism, short-termism, Trumpism, the attraction of simple solutions, responses to inequality, and direct democracy (Elster, 2020).

Populism has been widely considered to be a thin (Engesser; Ernst; Esser; Büchel, 2017b) and chameleonic political position (Taggart, 2000) and as a space created by post-industrial societies for less ideological parties that can combine diverse types of ideology (Mudde, 2004). It is framed as a political strategy aimed at constructing hegemony and power. Laclau and Mouffe are two of the most relevant theorists of populism in recent years. They pointed out the importance of the populist discourse, which is often ambiguous and fluctuating (Laclau, 2005) and always based on the construction of “the people” by bringing together multiple social demands (Laclau; Mouffe, 1987). The malleability of this concept of “the people”, that can make reference to the (lower) social class, or appeal to the whole citizenship of a nation, is determinant in the construction of populist movements and hegemonies (Geffroy, 1989; Ruiz Sanjuán, 2019). According to Müller‘s (Müller, 2016) Seven Theses on Populism, populism is the permanent shadow of representative politics, given that there is always the possibility to speak in name of the “real people” facing powerful elites. Precisely, the symbolic representation of these real people allows populists to deduce the “correct” political position to adopt. Moreover, he considers populist actors to be anti-pluralist more than anti-elitist, and not necessarily favourable to a more participatory closer politics.

Others put the focus in distinguishing between right and left-wing populisms. In particular, Fraser (2017: 282), distinguishes into “reactionary or “progressive” populist movements. According to her, populist movements are the consequence of a generalised rejection of the political establishments and both of the two types advocate for citizens’ protection facing the problems that arise from globalisation and neoliberalism (Fraser, 2017). However, the main difference between the two stems from the fact that, while the first one explains these problems from an individualistic perspective and focuses on identifying and blaming culprits, often among minorities, the other puts the emphasis on the reversion of structural inequities and the need for social protection as means for emancipation.

When it comes to identifying the boundaries of populism, scholars have usually drawn on the basic elements of the populist discourse. Populist discourse is said to be simplistic and emotionally knotted (Taggart, 2000). It tries to reduce the complexity of reality (Engesser; Ernst; Esser; Büchel, 2017a), and it is, in general, ambiguous and malleable. Contrary to more ideologized parties with a dogmatic character, populist discourse is adjustable and adaptable (Rooduijn; de Lange; van der Brug, 2014; Taggart, 2000). A majority of the studies on populist communication make use of content analysis to define what populism is. The general conclusions are that populist communication is centred on ‘common people’ and their traditional values and norms —the ‘master frame’ (Jagers; Walgrave, 2007), the heartland that becomes an imagined community that excludes the extreme (Taggart, 2000)—, and opposes ‘the elite’. Mouffe (2005) also considers populism as an archaic form of identification that draws on the need for its followers to be a part of a community, the mythical construction of the heartland (Mudde, 2004), since they may feel alienated, excluded or insecure (Reinemann, Carsten; Aalberg, Toril; Esser, Frank; Strömbäck, Jesper; de Vreese, Claes H. 2016). In particular, right and far-right populist discourses deal with anti-immigration (Alonso-Muñoz; Casero-Ripollés, 2018), anti-Islam, anti-EU, or anti-anything connected to a corrupt elite or a minority group that challenges common values or is opposed to the interest of an imagined homogeneous group of individuals. Finally, populist discourses also add narratives of crisis (Reinemann, Carsten; Aalberg, Toril; Esser, Frank; Strömbäck, Jesper; de Vreese, Claes H. 2016; Taggart, 2000). In sum, as proposed by Rooduijn (2014a), the common factors of populist discourse worldwide are; the central position of ‘the people’, criticism of elites, the consideration of ‘the people’ as a homogeneous entity and the existence of crisis.

Populism and Social Media

Scholars have also evinced the intimate link between populism and the development of mass media technologies. From a radically deterministic approach, Kornhauser (1959) considers populism as cause and effect within mass media society. In a similar vein, Mazzoleni (2007) asserts that it is precisely media complicity that has propitiated the presence of populist movements in the media. For the author, populist politicians are charismatic, master media strategists and adapt their discourse to the demands of commercial mass media and audiences. Their emotional treatment of social reality and their yielding to popular tastes and to the satisfaction of the audience make populists appealing for the mass media (Mazzoleni, 2007).

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